As President Donald Trump gears up for his second term, millions of immigrants in the United States face the looming threat of deportation under his promised “largest deportation operation in American history.”
This ambitious plan targets undocumented migrants, particularly those with criminal records or recent border arrivals, but leaves some groups potentially shielded from removal. While migrants from countries like Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico top the list of those at risk, others—such as Venezuelans with temporary protections or citizens of nations refusing repatriation—may escape the immediate sweep. This article explores who is facing deportation from America and identifies which countries’ migrants might avoid the crackdown, based on current policies, legal protections, and international dynamics.
The rhetoric crystallized into action on March 25, 2025, when Trump’s incoming border czar, Tom Homan, outlined plans to prioritize deporting over 1 million immigrants with final removal orders, alongside millions more apprehended at the border since 2021.
The administration’s focus sharpens on those deemed “public safety threats,” including an estimated 650,000 with criminal convictions, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) data reported by The New York Times. However, logistical hurdles, legal safeguards, and diplomatic resistance suggest not all migrants will face the same fate, creating a complex landscape of risk and reprieve.
The Deportation Machine Revs Up
Trump’s campaign pledge to deport up to 11 million undocumented immigrants has morphed into a tangible policy framework. ICE, tasked with executing removals, currently detains around 41,500 individuals—a fraction of what’s needed for mass deportation. CNN reports that the administration plans to expand detention capacity, potentially using military bases like Guantánamo Bay for “hard-to-deport” cases. The initial targets: those with criminal histories, ranging from minor offenses to serious felonies, and recent border crossers lacking legal status.
Hondurans lead the pack, with over 261,000 awaiting removal, per ICE figures cited by Newsweek. Guatemala and Mexico follow closely, with 223,000 and 186,000 respectively, forming a trio of Central American nations bearing the brunt of enforcement. These countries, long sources of migration due to poverty and violence, have seen their citizens flood the U.S.-Mexico border, especially since 2021, when crossings spiked. Fox News notes that Trump’s team aims to leverage existing removal orders—many issued during the Biden era—to fast-track deportations, starting with these groups.
Who Is Facing Deportation from America?
The question of who is facing deportation from America centers on several key categories. First, undocumented immigrants with criminal records—about 650,000, per The New York Times—are prime targets. This includes individuals convicted of DUIs, drug possession, or more severe crimes like assault. ICE’s fiscal year 2024 data, reported by NBC News, shows 271,000 removals, with a sharp uptick expected as Trump’s policies take hold. Homan has emphasized, “If you’re here illegally and commit a crime, you’re gone,” signaling zero tolerance.
Second, recent arrivals—particularly the 2.3 million apprehended at the southwest border from January 2023 to April 2024, according to the American Immigration Council—face heightened risk. Many, fleeing gang violence or economic collapse in El Salvador, Honduras, and Haiti, entered under Biden’s loosened border controls. Now, with Title 42 expulsions ended and asylum restrictions tightened, CNN reports these migrants are vulnerable to expedited removal, a process bypassing immigration courts for swift deportation.
Third, long-term undocumented residents without legal recourse—estimated at 11 million by PBS News—could be swept up if Trump expands enforcement beyond current priorities. The Migration Policy Institute warns that workplace raids and community sweeps, hallmarks of Trump’s first term, could resurface, targeting construction and hospitality workers, sectors heavily reliant on undocumented labor.
Migrants with Temporary Protections
Not all migrants face the same peril. Those with temporary legal statuses, like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) or Temporary Protected Status (TPS), occupy a gray zone. DACA, protecting about 535,000 “Dreamers” brought to the U.S. as children, remains under legal siege, but court rulings have so far blocked its termination, per Reuters. Trump’s past ambivalence—he once floated amnesty before pivoting to hardline stances—leaves their fate uncertain, though advocates fear revocation looms.
TPS, shielding over 700,000 from countries like Venezuela, Haiti, and El Salvador, offers another lifeline. Venezuela’s 465,000 TPS holders, granted status due to political turmoil under Nicolás Maduro, may dodge immediate deportation, especially as Caracas resists repatriation efforts, per BBC. Haiti, with 200,000 TPS recipients amid ongoing chaos, similarly benefits from humanitarian protections—though Trump’s team has signaled intent to reassess these designations, Fox News reports.
Countries Resisting Repatriation
Diplomatic friction adds another layer of protection for some. Migrants from nations refusing to accept deportees—so-called “recalcitrant countries”—may avoid removal despite lacking legal status. China, with an estimated 130,000 undocumented residents, has historically slow-walked repatriation, accepting only 141 deportees in 2023, per NBC News. India, home to 725,000 undocumented immigrants per PBS, has also dragged its feet, complicating ICE’s efforts. Newsweek’s map of non-cooperative states highlights Honduras as a potential outlier, with President Xiomara Castro threatening to halt U.S. military cooperation if mass deportations proceed—a stance that could snarl logistics.
Cuba, too, poses challenges. After resuming deportation flights post-COVID, the U.S. removed just 1,000 Cubans in 2024, a trickle compared to the 125,000 who arrived via the border since 2021, per CBS News. Havana’s reluctance, rooted in decades of tense relations, could shield many from Trump’s dragnet. These dynamics suggest that while Central Americans face the heaviest pressure, Asians and some Caribbeans might slip through the cracks.
Deportation Plans -Economic and Social Fallout
Deporting millions isn’t just a logistical feat—it’s an economic gamble. Undocumented immigrants comprise 4.8% of the U.S. workforce—7.5 million workers—concentrated in agriculture, construction, and hospitality, per the National Immigration Forum. Removing them could slash GDP by 1.4% in the first year, costing $4.7 trillion over a decade, the Center for Migration Studies estimates. The American Immigration Council warns of ripple effects: 5.1 million U.S.-citizen children in mixed-status families could lose breadwinners, plunging households into poverty.
Public reaction splits along familiar lines. Trump supporters, trending on X, cheer the crackdown as a jobs boon for Americans, while critics—like Hillary Clinton, who quipped, “You have got to be kidding me”—decry the human toll. Businesses, from California farms to Texas builders, brace for labor shortages, with CNN reporting retailers like Walmart already tightening budgets amid consumer uncertainty.
Legal and Logistical Hurdles
Trump’s vision faces steep obstacles. ICE’s 41,500 detention beds fall woefully short of the millions targeted, prompting plans for “vast holding facilities” in Texas, per the National Immigration Forum. Budget estimates soar—$86 billion annually, says border czar Homan— dwarfing current funding, per KFF. Legal challenges loom, too: the ACLU vows to fight expedited removals lacking due process, a tactic Trump may expand nationwide, per PBS News.
International cooperation is another wild card. Guatemala’s willingness to accept deportees contrasts with Panama and Costa Rica’s coerced role as stopovers for Asians, NBC News notes. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, promising a “proper” reception for returnees, could either ease or complicate the process, depending on negotiations, per Reuters.
The Human Face of Deportation
Behind the numbers are stories of upheaval. A Honduran father of three, detained in Louisiana after a traffic stop, awaits removal despite two decades in the U.S., The Guardian reports. A Venezuelan mother in Colorado, shielded by TPS, clings to hope as her status teeters. These cases, multiplied millions-fold, underscore the stakes as Trump’s machine roars to life.
For now, the administration’s early moves—executive orders signed January 20, per CNN—signal intent, but scale remains the test. Will Trump deport millions, or will resistance and reality temper his ambitions? As April looms, when mass operations could peak, the nation watches a policy that could reshape its demographic and economic fabric.
This article draws on reporting from BBC, CNN, NBC, Fox News, The New York Times, and other outlets like Reuters, PBS News, The Guardian, Newsweek, CBS News, and Al Jazeera, weaving a comprehensive picture of America’s deportation landscape under Trump.
Focus Keywords: Trump deportation plans, undocumented immigrants USA, countries resisting deportation, TPS protections, mass deportation risks
